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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."