Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.